|
|
China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Hanousek, Milan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
The object of this thesis is to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Chinese currency and to determine how much the actual exchange rate de- viates from the equilibrium value. Throughout the China's central planned period the currency was highly overvalued, but economic reforms have brought it closer to the equilibrium. At the present time, the common perception is that the currency is significantly undervalued. We employ the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which enables to measure overvaluation or undervaluation of the actual real effective exchange rate. The basic require- ments for the calculating the FEER are estimated trade equations, a potential output for China and its main foreign partners and sustainable capital flows. Trade equations are estimated by the Engle-Granger two step estimator and the Johansen methodology. The modified version of trade equations is esti- mated by ordinary least squares. The dataset used in this study is composed of annual observations over the period 1981 and 2010. 1
|
|
|
China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Hanousek, Milan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
The object of this thesis is to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Chinese currency and to determine how much the actual exchange rate de- viates from the equilibrium value. Throughout the China's central planned period the currency was highly overvalued, but economic reforms have brought it closer to the equilibrium. At the present time, the common perception is that the currency is significantly undervalued. We employ the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which enables to measure overvaluation or undervaluation of the actual real effective exchange rate. The basic require- ments for the calculating the FEER are estimated trade equations, a potential output for China and its main foreign partners and sustainable capital flows. Trade equations are estimated by the Engle-Granger two step estimator and the Johansen methodology. The modified version of trade equations is esti- mated by ordinary least squares. The dataset used in this study is composed of annual observations over the period 1981 and 2010. 1
|
|
|
Čínská měna RENMINBI, skutečně podhodnocená?
Štembera, Jaroslav ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
The thesis focuses on the question of undervaluation of the renminbi exchange rate to the U.S. dollar from the perspective of three selected alternative methods of calculating long term equilibrium exchange rate. In the case of calculations of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and the natural real exchange rate, I performed calculations by using vector error correction model. In the case of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate I used error correction model. The input data used in the models are ranging from 1980 to 2010. Those are primarily value of nominal exchange rates, price levels and foreign trade. According to my results behavioural and fundamental equilibirum exchange rate show undervaluation of the renminbi to the year 2010, while the natural real exchange rate indicates a slight overvaluation of the renminbi to the year 2010.
|
guest ::
